18 Comments

When do you think society will have collapsed? As in when do you think most of the people in the first world will be struggling for survival?

Expand full comment

How does this work with labor? Aren’t labor costs what led to off-shoring to begin with? Off-shore labor is not only cheaper, it allows manufacturers to bypass regulation, healthcare, retirement, a whole host of nettlesome labor related issues they can more or less forget about by off-shoring.

Expand full comment

During this beginning of the energy crisis, I've noticed smart people have resigned themselves and talk about 'climate change' and 'global warming' as if it's just fait accompli. All of the fraud behind that movement, information that is easy to find, seems to be impossible to mention. This is part of the reason why good, rational people fail, why "green" energy won the day in Germany, and why citizens will suffer or die if this winter is a cold one.

Sure, I plan on doing well in Uranium, Coal, Nat Gas, and oil. But someone besides Mark Mills needs to say that 'climate change' is a manufactured movement with nefarious motives, and is scientific nonsense. Hell, even Goehring and Rosensweig (sp) talk about 'climate change' like it's legit. Someone needs to speak up and say the emperor has no clothes.

Expand full comment

The energy prices here in Europe have many roots - European green deal (we all know that when bureaucrats are involved, the situation will got worse), not enough wind for the 'green' energy sources, Russia can't supply (at the moment, I believe next few weeks the issues will be resolved) enough gas and Germany stopped most of its nuclear power plants. Maybe there's even more things I don't know, but the main issues of European energy sector are nothing more than stupid politicians. I don't believe the same thing could happen in US too. On the onshore ports - you probably missed the situation in UK where you don't have enough truck drivers. I expect exactly the same situation in all EU countries if there's major relocation from offshore to onshore.

Expand full comment
Oct 7, 2021Liked by Doomberg

It strikes me that this increased emphasis on "just in time" inventory systems also pervades personal finance. Why would one pay off their mortgage when they can put those $ to work in the stock market (of course, stonks only go up). Individuals and families have very little raw material (cash) to weather a supply chain (income) interruption.

Expand full comment
Oct 7, 2021Liked by Doomberg

Those of us who live in Florida don't necessarily see a deluge of New Yorkers as a "win" for us. ;-)

Expand full comment
Oct 7, 2021Liked by Doomberg

Wonderful article and a great interview on Grant-Williams! Just to add a few more thoughts that come to mind:

1. We could see a serious breakdown of supply chain systems causing all manner of price rises which we never thought could happen given how connected the world is (already happening and may likely accelerate)

2. US withdrawing troops from everywhere (cue..Peter Zeihan) will exacerbate the supply chain issues with global order suffering with regional hegemons (Turkey, China, Iran, India, Germany, Russia) and the global hegemon (for now anyway) - the US - contributing to the chaos by cornering supplies as they did with Vaccines

3. This could force supply chain realignments from Just-in-time inventories to Just-in-case inventories - this will cause some manufacturing to shift to US and some to countries other than China (read India, Thailand, Mexico, Easter Europe, Latin America)

4. These changes are likely to lead to unforeseen demand for industrial complexes, base materials and all kinds of commodities including oil/gas (supply being destroyed before demand)

5. Further with money printing across the globe, all currencies are likely to be devalued with a vengeance.

6. Tech - which has helped optimize things till now for the consumer (same day/ 30 mins delivery) is likely to lose its significance. Tech will have to realign to solve real issues...like availability of food/energy where needed.

7. Green tech and IOT will lead the tech transformation in the next decade. They are likely to be enablers for industrial/supply chain/materials/mining companies while consumer tech will likely take a back seat.

Yes winter is coming, but only for those who bet on the past 20 year winners.

Expand full comment

Great minds must think alike. I wrote about the idea of manufacturing come back to the US a couple days ago on my blog here: https://baerlocherbearing.substack.com/p/soft-data-and-hard-facts.

Expand full comment
Oct 7, 2021Liked by Doomberg

Why not invest in Mexico?

Expand full comment
Oct 7, 2021Liked by Doomberg

Love your work...but you believe there will be a staggering wave of onshoring? Meaning, for example, the US will begin building out better energy infrastructure (coal, oil) to ensure that this "crisis" will "never" happen to them? Or that the EU will begin doing the same? Perhaps I am missing something as I know you don't believe that to be true :)

Expand full comment