What would happen if an entire country ran out of DEF fluid? Amazingly, we might be about to find out.
Imagine being a trucker in Northern Alberta and it's -45C and your DEF tanks or lines freeze up and then your truck won't move despite a full tank of Diesel.
Fascinating. Urea is found in bat droppings, guano and in urine. Maybe poop and Pee will be re-monetized
Waste to Chemicals (W2C) produces Hydrogen suitable for HFCV heavy trucks from Municipal Solid Waste. The Swiss technology operates commercially in Japan since 2006. A business model which includes CO2 by sequestration, stops landfill gas and leachate emissions and all combustion engine emissions with hydrogen fuel cell electric powered drives. Financial studies confirm H2 costs less than $2 per kg.
I believe Adblue supply will be secured in Europe - at least in Germany, because one of the biggest producers BASF heavily relies on diesel trucks for in- and outbound freight. I expect them to prioritise Adblue in their production portfolio. Adblue costs 55 - 60€ Cents/liter and is not a major cost driver (so far). Even if Adblue prices doubled or tripled it will be comparably little impact compared to diesel prices.
Having worked underground for a number of years, I was amazed at the technology that reduced the toxic gases in a confined space, AdBlue was revoloutionary to the mining industry. Where will your copper/ Gold/ rare earth materials come from if the mines shut?
Just take the stupid particle filter out .
Have farmland on the front range of Colorado. Usually grow pintos or corn. Did hops for Coors a while back, that was different. Current plan is to fallow the land this next year and lease out the water rights for the season. Between weather, ag prices, fertilizer, water lease rates and pesticide costs, just going to step aside.
From Australia here, I’ve seen AdBlue prices double in the past three weeks
And all of this because of "global warming" and "climate change". As some point, someone in power has to simply tell these people to take their 'activism' and blow it out their tailpipe.
DEF is an enormous PITA. Want to reduce emissions? Shorten the hell out of supply chains. Send raw materials from all over the world to let indentured servants build the stuff using coal power for energy, then ship finished goods back all over the world to be snarfed up with money conjured out of thin air. Yeah I see no way this could have gone wrong.
Another motivation to switch to electric trucks...
e.g. this article from almost two years ago. I wonder how it progressed since: https://www.greenbiz.com/article/8-electric-truck-and-van-companies-watch-2020
As a farmer of 30 acres. Our farm can not run with out DEF. Even worse states like California have completely outlawed the use of pre def tractors. This is not new purchases. This means that If you have one you can not use it. This paired with a shortage of round up. 2-4x fert prices. Crop yields are going to be abysmal.
I would be so very interested if the chicken wrote a piece about something so severely prevalent, yet no one talks about. Majority of all farmers outside of the mega farms are near bankruptcy. They plant their corn or soy and let it ride. No sprays, no fertilizer, nothing. All just to collect crop insurance because they cant compete in the market. Why can they not compete with the market?
- Maybe something that is outside of the realm of what the average farmer would know, Chemical fertilizers, fungicides, pesticides, etc. RUIN the soil and over time it is unaffordable. Trust me I had to restore a 30 acre field that was conventionally farmed for 30+ yrs. Im not going to bore with details but if you are interested in finding out more read, dirt to soil by Gabe brown.
- smaller farms simply are not as efficient and cost of capital to compete is so extremely high
- Chemical inputs are not getting cheaper and mega farms get huge discounts from bulk buying
Simply put, even in a perfect world with no gov deficits or subsides, food prices will be much higher. Also smalls farms will be eaten by mega farms.
The next crisis in 10-20 years will be one of soil.
This is a definite eye (beak) opener. I would assume development of the new hydrogen based Semi's would be receiving lots of investment, as a result of the powers-to-be stupidity. Curious if Australia has Hydrogen programs working, since Europe and the US are running the Semi's from Hyundai and several other manufacturers developing and testing. Makes sense that the Aussies go full throttle (pun intended) on Hydrogen development, with the threat of China resource sanctions. Of course, since Australia is locking up it's population and sending them to "Covid Camps" these days, they may not need as many trucks on the road, sans food distribution. I would also be investing in cargo aircraft, since they do not have emission restrictions to this severity...yet. Thanks for another great piece!
So how do we play this?
Off topic but, any thoughts on urea being reduced as a fertilizer due to regenerative, no-till agriculture?