"As an aside, the sheer intellectual horsepower at companies in the fossil fuel industry is radically underappreciated. The army of scientists, engineers, and technologists at companies like Cheniere Energy, Exxon Mobil, and Saudi Aramco are every bit as talented – and arguably do more important work – than their peers at Apple, Facebook, and Amazon. Without the former, the latter could not exist."
During WWI in Russia when the Tsar's support among the elites was down to almost nothing a representative in the Duma asked "Stupidity or treason?" in regards to the government's handling of the war. Some said stupidity, some said treason, many said "Both!" I really have to wonder if this is all due to the EU leader's stupidity or if its intentional sabotage of its people's living standard.
At the time National Grid and Ofgem saw no reason to be concerned (I was at an event at the time where, overwhelmingly, Industry was!) and I can't help but laugh at this:-
"..Energy regulator Ofgem says gas crisis "not its fault!".."
Ofgem is the Office of Gas and Electricity Markets. Our role is to protect consumers by working to deliver a greener, fairer energy system. Our organisational strategy and objectives for protecting consumers, supporting decarbonisation and improving the energy system..."
I've spoken to a number of traders and energy insiders over the past few months and more than a few think the goings on, related to Nordstream2 and Russian gas flows, particularly strange given the current predicament.
Its so strange in fact, that could it actually be the powers that be want some significant energy related inflation? and/or does more need to be destroyed in order to "reconstruct things in an improved way"?
If so, your average Joe is collateral damage and Russia a very convenient scapegoat.....
Europe is on the brink and incredibly weak. There is not much long term planing left. Not much understanding of realities.
The only hope: After several blackouts people wake up and Germany will conduct a u-turn and keep at least the handful remaining nuclear power plants running for much longer. If these will be shut down next year, all hell will break lose at one point or another....
A captivating piece as always, Doomberg! I certainly hope that the EU citizens have deep pockets in order to compensate for the lack of business acumen and sound judgement of their political leaders. Unfortunately, the same can be said for us here in Canada too, as well as many other places around the globe but perhaps in regard of other shortages.
Last year I was talking to a cousin in Eastern Europe on Skype. He was shocked to see me only in shorts and a T-shirt (at home) in December. "Is it really that warm in your house?"- he asked disbelievingly. "Yes. The T-stat is set to 22 degrees Celsius." I answered remembering that he was likely heating one or two rooms (only) in his place with a wood stove or electricity (ouch!).
This winter it will be waaaaayyyyy worse and more expensive for him.
Few human conditions focus the mind more intensely than that of your heat source failing in the middle of a cold winter. Believe me it focuses your mind like a laser and ranks right up there with being cold and hungry which are two conditions Europeans may find themselves acquainted with shortly. Aside from the obvious purpose of heating homes natural gas is an important feed stock for the production of ammonia which is the most widely used source of nitrogen which farmers use to grow our food. Modern agriculture would be impossible without this. Perhaps when they're hungry and freezing in the dark they may focus long enough to question the wisdom of putting Americas geo-strategic interests ahead of their own
In a bit of Brexit revenge, British advisors, collecting fees from London Oil Exchange LOE and dishing out some of that money as bribes to the EU admin, convinced EU nations to go off long term contracts with Russia and onto spot market pricing, promising that a flood of natural gas was coming to EU regulators who didn't want to look too hard while cash was waiting on the table for their agreement.
Politically and financially it was also seen as a good thing to collect bribes from the CIA while also reneging on promises to purchase that underwrote NordStream 2 and related infrastructure. Now the LOE traders are really raking it in, and Putin knows the Germans are about as trustworthy as ... American businessmen, and will price in his risk accordingly while he has also built infrastructure that can allow him to sell gas to Asia too. Merkel is ready to sell Germany down the stream for a post at the CIA Bank, ahem, World Bank for screwing the pooch.
Hey at least they can't be called 'climate change deniers' on twitter, and they get virtue signaling points for listening to Greta. Those things have to count for something - amirite?
There's something to be said about Russia's ability to use winter to its geopolitical advantage. Even though there is plenty of historical evidence of their strategy, Russia's foes (political / economic / military) always seem to ignore the weather. Remarkable.
Could not agree more with this statement:
"As an aside, the sheer intellectual horsepower at companies in the fossil fuel industry is radically underappreciated. The army of scientists, engineers, and technologists at companies like Cheniere Energy, Exxon Mobil, and Saudi Aramco are every bit as talented – and arguably do more important work – than their peers at Apple, Facebook, and Amazon. Without the former, the latter could not exist."
Damned wild reading this in 10/2022!
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60229199
a rare outbreak of common sense!!! looks like some folk have been reading the chicken....
During WWI in Russia when the Tsar's support among the elites was down to almost nothing a representative in the Duma asked "Stupidity or treason?" in regards to the government's handling of the war. Some said stupidity, some said treason, many said "Both!" I really have to wonder if this is all due to the EU leader's stupidity or if its intentional sabotage of its people's living standard.
This is one of your best pieces so far! Well done!
Just to throw a few more reasons why telling Russia to stick its extra gas, makes absolutely no sense:-
- https://www.africanews.com/2021/11/01/algeria-to-halt-gas-exports-to-spain-via-morocco//
- https://www.ft.com/content/d53b5843-dbe0-4724-8adf-75c66127ea80
+ UK North Sea Gas production ran ~20% below the past 5 year average to the end of July
and then to really nail the UK's exposure, 70% of it's (already relatively small) gas storage capacity was shut down in 2017:-
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jun/20/uk-gas-storage-prices-rough-british-gas-centrica
At the time National Grid and Ofgem saw no reason to be concerned (I was at an event at the time where, overwhelmingly, Industry was!) and I can't help but laugh at this:-
"..Energy regulator Ofgem says gas crisis "not its fault!".."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58697347
when:
"...What is the purpose of Ofgem?
Ofgem is the Office of Gas and Electricity Markets. Our role is to protect consumers by working to deliver a greener, fairer energy system. Our organisational strategy and objectives for protecting consumers, supporting decarbonisation and improving the energy system..."
I've spoken to a number of traders and energy insiders over the past few months and more than a few think the goings on, related to Nordstream2 and Russian gas flows, particularly strange given the current predicament.
Its so strange in fact, that could it actually be the powers that be want some significant energy related inflation? and/or does more need to be destroyed in order to "reconstruct things in an improved way"?
If so, your average Joe is collateral damage and Russia a very convenient scapegoat.....
Europe is on the brink and incredibly weak. There is not much long term planing left. Not much understanding of realities.
The only hope: After several blackouts people wake up and Germany will conduct a u-turn and keep at least the handful remaining nuclear power plants running for much longer. If these will be shut down next year, all hell will break lose at one point or another....
A captivating piece as always, Doomberg! I certainly hope that the EU citizens have deep pockets in order to compensate for the lack of business acumen and sound judgement of their political leaders. Unfortunately, the same can be said for us here in Canada too, as well as many other places around the globe but perhaps in regard of other shortages.
Last year I was talking to a cousin in Eastern Europe on Skype. He was shocked to see me only in shorts and a T-shirt (at home) in December. "Is it really that warm in your house?"- he asked disbelievingly. "Yes. The T-stat is set to 22 degrees Celsius." I answered remembering that he was likely heating one or two rooms (only) in his place with a wood stove or electricity (ouch!).
This winter it will be waaaaayyyyy worse and more expensive for him.
Few human conditions focus the mind more intensely than that of your heat source failing in the middle of a cold winter. Believe me it focuses your mind like a laser and ranks right up there with being cold and hungry which are two conditions Europeans may find themselves acquainted with shortly. Aside from the obvious purpose of heating homes natural gas is an important feed stock for the production of ammonia which is the most widely used source of nitrogen which farmers use to grow our food. Modern agriculture would be impossible without this. Perhaps when they're hungry and freezing in the dark they may focus long enough to question the wisdom of putting Americas geo-strategic interests ahead of their own
In a bit of Brexit revenge, British advisors, collecting fees from London Oil Exchange LOE and dishing out some of that money as bribes to the EU admin, convinced EU nations to go off long term contracts with Russia and onto spot market pricing, promising that a flood of natural gas was coming to EU regulators who didn't want to look too hard while cash was waiting on the table for their agreement.
Politically and financially it was also seen as a good thing to collect bribes from the CIA while also reneging on promises to purchase that underwrote NordStream 2 and related infrastructure. Now the LOE traders are really raking it in, and Putin knows the Germans are about as trustworthy as ... American businessmen, and will price in his risk accordingly while he has also built infrastructure that can allow him to sell gas to Asia too. Merkel is ready to sell Germany down the stream for a post at the CIA Bank, ahem, World Bank for screwing the pooch.
This one knocked it out of the park! One of the best Doomies I've read yet.
Hey at least they can't be called 'climate change deniers' on twitter, and they get virtue signaling points for listening to Greta. Those things have to count for something - amirite?
Putin out there playing 4D chess. Everyone else playing checkers.
There's something to be said about Russia's ability to use winter to its geopolitical advantage. Even though there is plenty of historical evidence of their strategy, Russia's foes (political / economic / military) always seem to ignore the weather. Remarkable.