“The only countries that have successfully moved from fossil fuels to low-carbon power have done so with the help of nuclear energy.” – Michael Shellenberger As Europe and China are finding out the hard way, energy is life. Energy is food. Energy is warmth. Energy is order. Energy is civilization. The absence of energy is death. It is hunger. It is cold. It is the end of civilization. These are simply indisputable axioms of physics. The second law of thermodynamics is as brutal as it is undefeated: disorder is spontaneous, and life is the pinnacle of high order.
It would be really interesting to model how much carbon has been emitted into the atmosphere as a result of Greenpeace anti nuclear energy stance and the effect it has had on denuclearization worldwide. In the face of Putin's terror can you believe the Germans are shutting down their entire nuclear industry? Countries like Australia (who have 30% of the worlds Uranium and doesn't even have a tectonic fault line on shore anywhere ) didn't even get a start thanks to an bi partisan act of parliament signed late last century in the frenzy of the anti nuclear movement.
Many readers are discussing the availability / sustainability of uranium, it should be noted that over the last half-century, many research have been done on the potential to just extract it from sea water, which would put the reserve of Uranium basically close to infinity, just google "uranium seawater extraction" should give you a ton of hits.
And this is not some fantasy pie in the sky (or sea ), most number suggest somewhere in the low 100s per pound of U3O8 (yellow cake) via this method, while currently most miners are talking about like 70~80 to incentivize starting new mines, in short, this is more or less simply a matter of price incentives and country(s) putting their mind to it. as the problem is also that to do it on an industrial scale it's not going to happen via some garage startups.
If anything, China's Hydro Engineering society already announced recently that their goal is to try and setup a pilot project around 2026~31 for industrial scale Uranium extraction from the sea. this is far closer to a reality than most seem to assume.
(the article is in chinese, but you can google translate.)
There are other concerns with Nuclear, particularly I'm not sure if we can train enough people to operate them, and the profileration gets more concerning if we're starting to build them in smaller / poorer countries etc. but "running out of Uranium" really isn't the problem.
While I agree that nuclear is necessary for the U.S. for have a sane energy strategy, we can't even keep clean drinking water, upkeep our bridges, and keep our grid safe.
Realistically, I think we have to start getting the basics bad down first. Stop alienating our trades. Stop importing third world work standards and cultures into some of the basic parts of our infrastructure labor because we're starting to get third world infrastructure.
After we reverse those trends, we can start thinking about nuclear. But right now nuclear sounds like trying to run on broken kneecaps.
Chernobyl was as bad as it was due to Soviet Party incompetence. With the slow slide down of America, it’s a bit of a miss to say we wouldn’t have the same problem within 50 years time.
Anyone has a reference to read up on a good balanced fact based “business case” for Nuclear?
-I’d like to understand better as with the limited info I have, I tend to agree with the chicken that nuclear is discounted with platitudes, so I would love to get more fact based context.
- “Nuclear is expensive”, I am suspicious as cost is rarely mentioned in fighting climate change, but often appears to challenge nuclear. Once the investment for this “zero carbon future” is made, incremental cost of nuclear energy is low?
- What is the solution and additional cost to get a balanced grid with only solar and wind? Minimum of x% fossil or some astronomic cost for storage? It’s frustrating to hear people say “just build more windmills” I’d like to compare nuclear energy cost with solar/wind including this balancing grid cost.
- Safety, great analogy from unblinking om air travel, is there some health/safety data vs other energy sources?
- “It takes to much time to build reactor” So how long and compared to what? I assume it will take a while before there is a low carbon solution to balance the grid
Happy to learn to get a more fact based view. Thanks in advance for any suggestions
"Putting aside the tired tropes of the alleged dangers of nuclear energy and handling of nuclear waste..."
Awfully convenient to handwave them away, meaning you don't have to think about (or, worse, actually fund and account for) things like the massive logistics required to safely store waste that'll still be lethally dangerous tens of thousands of years from now.
I’m generally pro-nuclear but it’s far from the “solution” that this post claims it to be. Proven Uranium reserves would last us 90yrs at our current rate of power consumption. Even if increased U prices led to a 2x expansion in the total supply… the reality is there’s just not that much of it.
Moving towards breeder reactors could mayyybe 7x the possible total energy acquired from that supply, but breeder reactors are an even thornier & more dangerous question… as they produce weapons grade material…. A world full of breeder reactors is a genuinely terrifying place.
I do agree it’s worth developing further, esp thorium reactors. But at best, nuclear is a small component of a broader overhaul of our grid. It’s certainly not anything close to a solution.
I agree with the chicken, but the main problem with solar and wind is that it is not storable. The energy to make panels is a tiny cost (you have to mine U and construct reactors too). The real problem is you can barely store energy for a few hours from day to night, and we can forget about storing it from summer to winter.
Great post. Nuclear is the only green future in my view and it's sad that poeple fear it without having looked at the research. You just have to compare the C02 production of Germany to Norway to see who has the correct vision.
"I guess Greenpeace China isn’t a thing? Does Greenpeace speak truth to Xi’s power, or are their dangerous platitudes reserved us gullible know-nothings in the West?"
Yes, that's exactly right.
Greenpeace was SJW converged decades ago. It's why Patrick Moore left the organization he co-founded. It was infected with the leftist mindset, which is stupid, arrogant, venal, power hungry, and obstinate. They know what's best for YOU and if it kills a few useless eaters, well, that's the cost of bringing a socialist utopia to the earth (with them at the top of the pyramid of course).
I'm old enough to remember 3 Mile Island. The propaganda worked on me. Then, a few years ago, I read that no one died, no one seriously affected, and there were rumblings that things were somehow allowed to get out of control.
0 deaths.
So, yes. Greenpeace and their ilk want you and your family to suffer, perhaps dead, and they think it's funny. They ignore China for one simple reason. China doesn't care what they think. They say 'no', or are silent to the forces that have dismantled these once proud United States. It's that simple. Someday, people here will do the same thing. The only question is how much damage will the Prog / SJW / Woke mob do before strong men stand up. and tell the blue-haired barrel shaped anti nuclear Greenpeace "protestor" to STFU.
It would be really interesting to model how much carbon has been emitted into the atmosphere as a result of Greenpeace anti nuclear energy stance and the effect it has had on denuclearization worldwide. In the face of Putin's terror can you believe the Germans are shutting down their entire nuclear industry? Countries like Australia (who have 30% of the worlds Uranium and doesn't even have a tectonic fault line on shore anywhere ) didn't even get a start thanks to an bi partisan act of parliament signed late last century in the frenzy of the anti nuclear movement.
Many readers are discussing the availability / sustainability of uranium, it should be noted that over the last half-century, many research have been done on the potential to just extract it from sea water, which would put the reserve of Uranium basically close to infinity, just google "uranium seawater extraction" should give you a ton of hits.
http://large.stanford.edu/courses/2018/ph241/voigt1/ (like this one)
And this is not some fantasy pie in the sky (or sea ), most number suggest somewhere in the low 100s per pound of U3O8 (yellow cake) via this method, while currently most miners are talking about like 70~80 to incentivize starting new mines, in short, this is more or less simply a matter of price incentives and country(s) putting their mind to it. as the problem is also that to do it on an industrial scale it's not going to happen via some garage startups.
If anything, China's Hydro Engineering society already announced recently that their goal is to try and setup a pilot project around 2026~31 for industrial scale Uranium extraction from the sea. this is far closer to a reality than most seem to assume.
http://www.hydropower.org.cn/showNewsDetail.asp?nsId=30330
(the article is in chinese, but you can google translate.)
There are other concerns with Nuclear, particularly I'm not sure if we can train enough people to operate them, and the profileration gets more concerning if we're starting to build them in smaller / poorer countries etc. but "running out of Uranium" really isn't the problem.
No mention of a Manhattan project for thorium which would provide clean energy without nuclear waste.
While I agree that nuclear is necessary for the U.S. for have a sane energy strategy, we can't even keep clean drinking water, upkeep our bridges, and keep our grid safe.
Realistically, I think we have to start getting the basics bad down first. Stop alienating our trades. Stop importing third world work standards and cultures into some of the basic parts of our infrastructure labor because we're starting to get third world infrastructure.
After we reverse those trends, we can start thinking about nuclear. But right now nuclear sounds like trying to run on broken kneecaps.
Hi when do you think a majority of the people in the first world will die due to climate change and other issues?
Chernobyl was as bad as it was due to Soviet Party incompetence. With the slow slide down of America, it’s a bit of a miss to say we wouldn’t have the same problem within 50 years time.
Anyone has a reference to read up on a good balanced fact based “business case” for Nuclear?
-I’d like to understand better as with the limited info I have, I tend to agree with the chicken that nuclear is discounted with platitudes, so I would love to get more fact based context.
- “Nuclear is expensive”, I am suspicious as cost is rarely mentioned in fighting climate change, but often appears to challenge nuclear. Once the investment for this “zero carbon future” is made, incremental cost of nuclear energy is low?
- What is the solution and additional cost to get a balanced grid with only solar and wind? Minimum of x% fossil or some astronomic cost for storage? It’s frustrating to hear people say “just build more windmills” I’d like to compare nuclear energy cost with solar/wind including this balancing grid cost.
- Safety, great analogy from unblinking om air travel, is there some health/safety data vs other energy sources?
- “It takes to much time to build reactor” So how long and compared to what? I assume it will take a while before there is a low carbon solution to balance the grid
Happy to learn to get a more fact based view. Thanks in advance for any suggestions
What about this: https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/current-and-future-generation/fast-neutron-reactors.aspx I've been reading about these reactors that are attempting to close the cycle and reuse the waste so that the remaining waste is both minimal and dangerous for a much shorter period. Anyone have any experience on this?
"Putting aside the tired tropes of the alleged dangers of nuclear energy and handling of nuclear waste..."
Awfully convenient to handwave them away, meaning you don't have to think about (or, worse, actually fund and account for) things like the massive logistics required to safely store waste that'll still be lethally dangerous tens of thousands of years from now.
I thought it was Finland that got this ball moving. https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/short_news/finland-lobbies-nuclear-energy-as-a-sustainable-source/
Apparently a lot of these EU countries want a reliable energy source that they can consider green.
Also, beat the chicken by two days. :P
https://baerlocherbearing.substack.com/p/ppi-fed-speakers-and-nuclear-developments
<3 your blog.
I’m generally pro-nuclear but it’s far from the “solution” that this post claims it to be. Proven Uranium reserves would last us 90yrs at our current rate of power consumption. Even if increased U prices led to a 2x expansion in the total supply… the reality is there’s just not that much of it.
Moving towards breeder reactors could mayyybe 7x the possible total energy acquired from that supply, but breeder reactors are an even thornier & more dangerous question… as they produce weapons grade material…. A world full of breeder reactors is a genuinely terrifying place.
I do agree it’s worth developing further, esp thorium reactors. But at best, nuclear is a small component of a broader overhaul of our grid. It’s certainly not anything close to a solution.
(Source for all of the above is pages 255-264 of https://escholarship.org/uc/item/9js5291m)
"Nuclear power is safe..." in THEORY.
In practice, what would you say if they build next nuclear plant near your house?
"Under President Doomberg, the US would revitalize its nuclear power industry." Doom: Run for office .
I agree with the chicken, but the main problem with solar and wind is that it is not storable. The energy to make panels is a tiny cost (you have to mine U and construct reactors too). The real problem is you can barely store energy for a few hours from day to night, and we can forget about storing it from summer to winter.
Great post. Nuclear is the only green future in my view and it's sad that poeple fear it without having looked at the research. You just have to compare the C02 production of Germany to Norway to see who has the correct vision.
"I guess Greenpeace China isn’t a thing? Does Greenpeace speak truth to Xi’s power, or are their dangerous platitudes reserved us gullible know-nothings in the West?"
Yes, that's exactly right.
Greenpeace was SJW converged decades ago. It's why Patrick Moore left the organization he co-founded. It was infected with the leftist mindset, which is stupid, arrogant, venal, power hungry, and obstinate. They know what's best for YOU and if it kills a few useless eaters, well, that's the cost of bringing a socialist utopia to the earth (with them at the top of the pyramid of course).
I'm old enough to remember 3 Mile Island. The propaganda worked on me. Then, a few years ago, I read that no one died, no one seriously affected, and there were rumblings that things were somehow allowed to get out of control.
0 deaths.
So, yes. Greenpeace and their ilk want you and your family to suffer, perhaps dead, and they think it's funny. They ignore China for one simple reason. China doesn't care what they think. They say 'no', or are silent to the forces that have dismantled these once proud United States. It's that simple. Someday, people here will do the same thing. The only question is how much damage will the Prog / SJW / Woke mob do before strong men stand up. and tell the blue-haired barrel shaped anti nuclear Greenpeace "protestor" to STFU.