We are at the onset of a global famine of historic proportions.
Can we get an update as of July 2023, please?
whats the update on this crisis? Gas prices are down, sharply-fertilizer prices down in lockstep. Surely the actual way events have turned out compared to the fearmongering in this piece merits a follow up?
Fantastic stack. I came here from Jim Puplava's Financial Sense podcast which has a excellent interview with you guys this week.
How do we invest to take advantage of the apparent agriculture crisis. Perhaps a futures call option on Wheat or Soybeans? Any advice out there? I have observed the price action of CAT and DE recently. very interesting.
There will be pieces that do not age well. Being up front on those would make me value your work even more. An update on the risks to global food supplies would be welcome. A lot has worked to alleviate the problems this year. But I wonder if this is mostly a tail risk risk that failed to materialize and is more of a "higher prices" suck for poorest people on the planet but not all that different than prior food spikes in the last 40 years. Spending some time to revisit some doom calls that have not panned out and getting an updated synthesis would be good.
I live in the north part of the Okanagan Valley in British Columbia. It's an agricultural area with miles of orchards, vineyards and farms and ranches of various kinds. I have recently been hearing more frequent rumours and worries at the farm markets around here about the war the Canadian federal government (run by that silver spoon, enviro-catastrophist urbanite Justin Trudeau in collaboration with his socialist pals) is waging on the energy and agriculture industries in Western Canada. Sadly for my family, the farmer we have been buying our chicken and eggs from has packed up and moved to Texas. She explained that Texas would be the last place on earth to outlaw meat.
Bureaucrat are determined to kill (oops sorry cull) us.
Interesting video on the coming Canadian Fertilizer Ban
World grain stocks have been shrinking for the last five years whilst the number sitting at the world’s table continues to rise. This is another emerging stress point.
Benign growing conditions worldwide these last five or six years have got us through. Now we indeed face Doomberg’s perfect storm.
A further risk not factored in is a serious weather event in the next three years.
God forbid we face the biblical seven bad years after seven good years.
Doomberg, reading a lot of your pieces and hearing countless interviews, I don't yet understand the significance (if any) that regenerative agriculture plays in all of this. From the things I have read, the increase of yield with cover crops and weed suppression, soil health retention to mitigate some water loss / usage, low to no till methods to prevent some Co2 emissions, holistic grazing practices to keep land from being over grazed, reducing the need for inputs (fertilizers..etc), it seems there should be a huge push to move towards regenerative practices. As with most things, it's easy to get one side of the story and miss the others. So as you've so eloquently put,"energy is life" and bridged the gap on the importance of nuclear / global food production - how can regenerative agricultural practices help (if at all) with food production and eliminating the reliance on some of the inputs that go into food production chain (i.e. chemical / fertilizers...)? With the teams background on Agriculture and business, would greatly appreciate if you could write a piece on this, since the information appears to be overwhelming. However the limited amount that Doomberg has written on this topic, leads me to believe there's some gross misunderstanding on my part! Please help to bridge the gap on what the disconnect is here, so we can better comprehend and map out what are and are not, viable solutions to some of the worlds biggest problems.
Thanks little green chicken.
The source: The Hackett Money Flow Commodity Report, October 1, 2020.
Natural Climate Cycle Synchronicity Ahead
We are at an historic moment in time when earth’s climate is about to change in dramatic and unthinkable ways. We are seeing a rare symmetry and synchronicity of natural weather cycles all pointing in the same phase and direction for the first time since the early 1600’s that preceded the worst weather century for the earth in over 1000 years called the Maunder Grande Solar Cycle Minimum. There are some differences but there are many similarities.
Hackett Financial Advisors Inc. specializes in the agricultural space where there is far less coverage by the commodity analyst community and where some of the greatest opportunities should remain in the years ahead. While everyone on the planet has an opinion on Crude Oil or Gold there are very few who study agriculture in the manner that we do.
Hackett’s clients are agricultural companies that require accurate future weather reports so that they may plan and invest accordingly. There continued existence since 2007 suggests that their opinions have value to their clients, meaning that their opinions have been generally correct.
The report includes some interesting charts including the Benner Fibonacci Cycle 1973 - 2037 that correlates Bull and Bear markets in Ag with US dollar strength.
The key points that I took away from this report:
1. Temperature declines in North America will be dramatic and persistent for more than a decade.
2. Drought and resulting impaired agricultural production in the US and Canada will have a dramatic impact on food commodity prices.
3. The change will begin on December 21, 2020 and the first dramatic change will occur between Fall 2021 and Spring 2022. Time enough to prepare and far enough away that most people won’t see it coming. (I forward this to friends in an email on Nov 8, 2020. The original report and interview was in RealVision at about that time discussing a non consensus view of climate change and its expected impact on the Ag industry).
Other factors such as war and access to energy were not predicted by this report so their dire predictions would be considered a best case scenario.
I would be interested in Doomberg's analysis and if they could reach out to Hackett Financial Advisors Inc for their comment and update of their views.
World stocks of grain have been tight for the last five years. Bountiful world harvests have replenished our stores. There is no slack in the system.
The only surplus stocks appear to be in China. Exportable stocks are currently blocked in Black Sea ports
Reduced fertiliser usage this season must reduce global grain output. More people sit at the world’s table each year so next harvest’s world stocks will shrink.
This seasons harvest feeds the world until next year’s harvest in July-Oct 2023.
If there is a poor world harvest due to drought, disease, floods, etc. in the next 16 months the price of grains will rocket higher from their already exalted, record levels.
Greg: thank you for pointing out some exceptions to the rule.
We can go back and forth but its a historical fact that the most advanced ancient cultures, e.g. Vedic culture, promoted high ethical ideals and lived accordingly. Their food intake was non-violent and their consciousness extremely high compared to the average consciousness we find in today's society.
As a society, we have devolved extremely over the last few thousand years, and we can't even imagine a time of peace, freedom and prosperity anymore. Our peace just means 'temporary absence of war"; our freedom means 'choosing whether we want to be exploited by left or the right"; our prosperity means 'being intoxicated by superficial wealth and consumerism that is based on the exploitation and destruction of the planet'. We have unlimited information at our fingertips, but no wisdom whatsoever.
At the end of the day, its up to each individual to chose between an ethical lifestyle in harmony with nature and....well, the opposite. I have made my choice and its the best decision I have made in my life. I hope you will be happy with the choices you are making. I can guarantee you though that no human has ever become fulfilled or happy with blood on their hands.
Why reference info coming out of Breibert? Are you into referencing Bannon quotes? Maybe RT? CCP?
Its all the same spew.
This is the kind of article I'm willing to pay $30 per month to read.
A superb article for regular people like me. Thank you!