After nailing consumers with the left jab of even more rolling blackouts in the future, California has decided to hit them with the right hook of taking away their ability to hedge against such inevitabilities.
Wait, PGE is decommissioning the plant because the plant is very costly to upkeep. Its not because Big Govt decided so. I am pro-nuclear energy but its also very expensive to turn a profit on a nuclear power plant(10-20 years+), and in an era of increasing interest rates is essentially a long duration asset.
Without dismissing the current, and near-term, value of Diablo to California's electricity needs and costs, maybe there's more to be reckoned with regarding flexibility vs baseload plants and their futures. As a starting point, a view of baseload from the "green" side,
if i'm not mistaken, diablo canyon sits directly on the san andreas fault. although it is designed to [supposedly] withstand a 7.5 magnitude earthquake, i think it reasonable to be concerned about this. i am a big supporter of nuclear power, but the location of this particular facility gives me some qualms. i do not think the california electricity and water policies are at all sensible, but sometimes even an idiot will make a reasonable decision.
What happens when the state regulators of AZ, NV and OR have had enough of CA and shutdown power exports. In the event of power failures/shortages in the exporting states, why would they consent to export power they need?
This advice might seem premature, but I think that those seeking to move to less insane states are only running before the flames. Emigrate. Look for a country where Western culture is not committing suicide. Not for your sake - the fire can take a long time coming, but for the sake of your children and theirs.
Ignoring all their friend's advice, in the late 70's my parents left Africa entirely, bound for Paraguay, instead of simply going to South Africa, like everyone else. At the time it seemed lunacy, and their prescient wisdom took decades to be revealed, but now their offspring salute them for their courage and vision.
It is my philosophy that, as irresponsible as Government can be, the fault is with the voters. They have the power (and in my mind, the responsibility) to vote these idiots out of office, or better yet, to do at least a modicum of due dilligence, and not put them in a position of power to begin with. If they suffer because of Government, they brought it on themselves.
“We are led by unserious people…” No, these people are very serious—serious like cancer. What is happening in Germany and California are the fruits of the Culture of Death.
Circa 1944 US Treasury Secy. Henry Morganthau proposed a plan which envisaged a postwar Germany as an agricultural, deindustrialized country which would be divided. After the war Pres. Truman sent Herbert Hoover to Germany to assess the feasibility of implementing Morganthau's plan. Hoover reported back that the population of Germany would have to be reduced by several million people in order for the plan to work. There appears to be evidence that Morganthau anticipated that and accepted the death or removal of that many more Germans for the sake of world peace.
.
Now it sure looks like Germany itself is implementing much of Morganthau's plan.
Cheap and abundant energy has done more to lift our civilisation from Victorian squalor than perhaps any other material factor. The Chinese understand this- which is why, in addition to investing crowd-pleasing solutions which don't really work at scale, they are working on SMR's, investing in nuclear and have built Big Hydro at exactly the point when it makes the most sense- when the current cheapness of construction labour compared to the future turns the investment into a dividend for their grandchildren.
Western civilisation by comparison is institutionally myopic to the point of partial blindness. The intellectual laziness of our political system always opts for the easy answers- in short our leaders prefer to follow the mood of the crowd, rather than to even attempt to make an empirical argument which might upset the zealots. In so many areas of public policy, we live in the Dictatorship of the Small Minority.
Here in the UK, our results are more mixed. We have opted more for wind more than solar as a crowd-pleasing solution, which the economists are at in some agreement is a somewhat better investment than solar, but only if one factors in the externalities of carbon mitigation. Pity we also decided to locate most of our turbines offshore, where they are also more costly.
Even our recent decision to marginally upgrade our nuclear capacity, hedging against the potentially cheaper energy of SMR's at a future date, is not without its controversies. When commissioning the private sector to build infrastructure, energy or otherwise, it is wise to ask the companies involved to bear an element of risk- otherwise one introduces a moral hazard.
But any deal which doesn't take advantage of government's ability to bear risk at rates which the market simply cannot match is not only stupid, but criminally negligent. Government's ability to bear risk is one of the very few things it is good at, precisely because it doesn't have to do anything! As an underwriter, government in unparalleled.
The Swedish managed to do nuclear cheaply, as did the French- the latter of which is a major source of consternation as a Brit. If we had only owned about 80% of the risk we could have had it cheaply as well. It's not that our leaders are stupid. It's just that they are far too prone to waving the white flag in the face of political realities. After all, we wouldn't want to reduce any blue-haired vegan girls from the Home Counties to tears. We may not care about her vote- precarious and unlikely as it is- but we certainly care about her parent's votes.
I'm sure they have a great deal to worry about already...
The main argument in Germany against nuclear seems to be the handling of waste (they like to portray it with leaky barrels in salt mine storage facility gorleben). Would love to get some insights on handling of waste and recylcing.
Wait, PGE is decommissioning the plant because the plant is very costly to upkeep. Its not because Big Govt decided so. I am pro-nuclear energy but its also very expensive to turn a profit on a nuclear power plant(10-20 years+), and in an era of increasing interest rates is essentially a long duration asset.
More proof nuclear energy is a giant fraud.
Without dismissing the current, and near-term, value of Diablo to California's electricity needs and costs, maybe there's more to be reckoned with regarding flexibility vs baseload plants and their futures. As a starting point, a view of baseload from the "green" side,
https://www.nrdc.org/experts/kevin-steinberger/debunking-three-myths-about-baseload
if i'm not mistaken, diablo canyon sits directly on the san andreas fault. although it is designed to [supposedly] withstand a 7.5 magnitude earthquake, i think it reasonable to be concerned about this. i am a big supporter of nuclear power, but the location of this particular facility gives me some qualms. i do not think the california electricity and water policies are at all sensible, but sometimes even an idiot will make a reasonable decision.
What happens when the state regulators of AZ, NV and OR have had enough of CA and shutdown power exports. In the event of power failures/shortages in the exporting states, why would they consent to export power they need?
Is it really a buch of morons or masterfully planned path to trigger inflation to preserve the debt based status quo?
This advice might seem premature, but I think that those seeking to move to less insane states are only running before the flames. Emigrate. Look for a country where Western culture is not committing suicide. Not for your sake - the fire can take a long time coming, but for the sake of your children and theirs.
Ignoring all their friend's advice, in the late 70's my parents left Africa entirely, bound for Paraguay, instead of simply going to South Africa, like everyone else. At the time it seemed lunacy, and their prescient wisdom took decades to be revealed, but now their offspring salute them for their courage and vision.
It is my philosophy that, as irresponsible as Government can be, the fault is with the voters. They have the power (and in my mind, the responsibility) to vote these idiots out of office, or better yet, to do at least a modicum of due dilligence, and not put them in a position of power to begin with. If they suffer because of Government, they brought it on themselves.
“We are led by unserious people…” No, these people are very serious—serious like cancer. What is happening in Germany and California are the fruits of the Culture of Death.
The solution is simple...electric-powered generators!
In a democracy, people get the government they deserve.
Circa 1944 US Treasury Secy. Henry Morganthau proposed a plan which envisaged a postwar Germany as an agricultural, deindustrialized country which would be divided. After the war Pres. Truman sent Herbert Hoover to Germany to assess the feasibility of implementing Morganthau's plan. Hoover reported back that the population of Germany would have to be reduced by several million people in order for the plan to work. There appears to be evidence that Morganthau anticipated that and accepted the death or removal of that many more Germans for the sake of world peace.
.
Now it sure looks like Germany itself is implementing much of Morganthau's plan.
Regarding Germany, believe me, it's actually much worse than that.
And we haven't even reached the stage of utter delusion - a German specialty. Stay tuned.
Cheap and abundant energy has done more to lift our civilisation from Victorian squalor than perhaps any other material factor. The Chinese understand this- which is why, in addition to investing crowd-pleasing solutions which don't really work at scale, they are working on SMR's, investing in nuclear and have built Big Hydro at exactly the point when it makes the most sense- when the current cheapness of construction labour compared to the future turns the investment into a dividend for their grandchildren.
Western civilisation by comparison is institutionally myopic to the point of partial blindness. The intellectual laziness of our political system always opts for the easy answers- in short our leaders prefer to follow the mood of the crowd, rather than to even attempt to make an empirical argument which might upset the zealots. In so many areas of public policy, we live in the Dictatorship of the Small Minority.
Here in the UK, our results are more mixed. We have opted more for wind more than solar as a crowd-pleasing solution, which the economists are at in some agreement is a somewhat better investment than solar, but only if one factors in the externalities of carbon mitigation. Pity we also decided to locate most of our turbines offshore, where they are also more costly.
Even our recent decision to marginally upgrade our nuclear capacity, hedging against the potentially cheaper energy of SMR's at a future date, is not without its controversies. When commissioning the private sector to build infrastructure, energy or otherwise, it is wise to ask the companies involved to bear an element of risk- otherwise one introduces a moral hazard.
But any deal which doesn't take advantage of government's ability to bear risk at rates which the market simply cannot match is not only stupid, but criminally negligent. Government's ability to bear risk is one of the very few things it is good at, precisely because it doesn't have to do anything! As an underwriter, government in unparalleled.
The Swedish managed to do nuclear cheaply, as did the French- the latter of which is a major source of consternation as a Brit. If we had only owned about 80% of the risk we could have had it cheaply as well. It's not that our leaders are stupid. It's just that they are far too prone to waving the white flag in the face of political realities. After all, we wouldn't want to reduce any blue-haired vegan girls from the Home Counties to tears. We may not care about her vote- precarious and unlikely as it is- but we certainly care about her parent's votes.
I'm sure they have a great deal to worry about already...
The main argument in Germany against nuclear seems to be the handling of waste (they like to portray it with leaky barrels in salt mine storage facility gorleben). Would love to get some insights on handling of waste and recylcing.
Good one Chook, Putin must have to stitch up his sides as he laughs himself to sleep. Let
me think.... where could they get some gas from.