“I'd rather entrust the government of the United States to the first 400 people listed in the Boston telephone directory than to the faculty of Harvard University.” – William F. Buckley, Jr. It pains me to write this piece. In so many ways, the American post-secondary education system is the envy of the world. The best and brightest from all over the globe compete to be a part of it. The graduate school system in particular produces wave after wave of newly minted scientists, doctors, engineers, artists and thought leaders who make truly substantial contributions to societal progress.
The problem isn't mainly faculty, but the explosion of administrators. It is this class that drives the crazy policies in higher education and at the same time is the major force driving costs. From a modest minority of professional positions in the early 1990s, campus administrators are now the majority of non-wage campus employees, in some places approaching 2/3. Not surprisingly, in those same 30 years, costs and tuition have exploded. The rate of increase is larger than 2x average inflation. I believe it's been more like 3x or more.
The historical turning point came in the mid-1990s, when the Clinton administration made it a national policy to get everyone to graduate high school and into college, no matter how underprepared or underqualified. The proliferation of easy financing we're used to now didn't exist before the 1990s. The Bush administration continued this policy, and Obama expanded on it. Before, college populations were smaller and graduation rates higher. The burden of student debt was far lower. Many students graduated before the 1990s with no debt at all.
Behind this was a previous generation's fateful perception that, in the future, everyone was going to work in an office, and that industrial and other working-class jobs had to disappear. This was already conventional wisdom among educators in the 1980s, but hadn't yet crystalized as national policy. The 1990s/2000s proliferation of ways to take out debt -- as with easy mortgages -- greatly eased the way to this future. Deindustrialization and the complete abandonment of the "family living wage" (one wage-earner supporting a family) (under pressure from liberals and feminists) became official policy in all but name after 1992. The abandonment of the working class and the "war on normal people" of the "new" liberals of the 1990s and 2000s, along with their more recent manufactured moral panics about race and gender, are part of this story as well.
Doomberg, I too was an M&A specialist prior to entering academia. After 15 years…10 years with tenure…I just gave it all up for all the reasons you mentioned. As Charlie Munger says “show me the incentives and I’ll show you the outcomes”, higher ed is structure to maintain the status quo. After all, where else can one find lifetime employment? Japan? That’s quickly changing…but not in academia. Until faculty feel the heat of their expendability, and leaders restructure their institutions to deliver value for the learner, this longstanding business model is truly going to the tar pits.
Just a few random notes from somebody in academia.
States, especially in the South, have pulled back subsidies dramatically since the 2008-09 recession. It used to be that the tuition (in state colleges) would cover about 25-30% of the actual costs and the public the remaining 70-75%. Now, the ratio is exactly flipped (in my institution, from 28/72 to 72/28).
It should be clear that this alone raises out-of-pocket cost by 2-3x, yet the college doesn't get any higher revenue (hence the permenent crisis). This has largely stayed out of the public discussion, but it is an important driving factor behind student debt growth (along with easy credit).
Computing is eating the world, so any degree that leads to a computationally driven job is worth having (for now). The rest, less and less so. The missing letter in STEM is C for computing; if you are not doing computational biology/chemistry/physics/etc there is no job for you.
The idea that higher education will be replaced by some sort of modular skills-based training has been around for a while and it hasn't gone very far. In fact, with the rare exception of advanced graduate classes, everything we teach is already out there, for free, in terms of information. Yet, it appears that most students do need the social aspect of campus and the hand holding of faculty in order to succeed. This was painfully confirmed in the COVID-induced online classes; it is a struggle for many. Part of it is that they don't get to talk to and learn from peers. It takes a village.
Dropout rates do look bad, but they are highly uneven across institutions, largely because elite institutions get to pick their students. Lesser ones, less so. We get some really unprepared students who don't stand a chance; the problem starts a lot earlier. There is a strong incentive for the university to have a graduation rate as high as possible (a dropout pays no tuition), so a lot of effort goes into it.
Still, what is the ideal dropout rate -- zero? Industry uses academic results as a cheap, first-cut filter; a sign of some (hopefully non-trivial) accomplishment and maturity. If that disappears as a signal, would that be beneficial?
Tenure has been on the wane for decades and is not nearly what the public imagines it to be (neatly summarized by the cartoon). These days you can get terminated for any kind of off-hand comment that lands wrongly. Most faculty in the humanities and other less favored disciplines are paid *unenviable* salaries. Only elite private and flagship state universities compete for top researchers (because they bring prestige and big grants).
Demographics is what is going to shake up higher education, and we know for a fact that a receding tide is coming over the next decade. So, yes, quite a few colleges are doomed simply because there aren't gonna be enough students to go around. This applies to both state and private colleges that are below elite status.
A good recap of what has been obvious for many years, but like so many other things that are begging for change our solutions always nibble around the edges when the only real solution needs to include a paradigm shift in the product design.
Start by imagining the high school counseling office not simply offering a university solution (presented consistently to all 5 of my very individually unique children) but in fact outlining the actual cost/benefit analysis of any choice the student is considering, all the way down to the current 6-figure truck driving opportunities (I believe a one page analysis signed by the student, counselor and parent should be required before graduation). Imagine that 56% drop out rate trending towards zero as each student would in fact be outlining their own unique direction.
Now, imagine the current typical campus not flying one university flag but dozens, maybe even hundreds (maybe even a chicken flag!). Imagine that campus in the center of every major city. Imagine the classroom not with tenured professors that only want security but a classroom being led by the best and most competent leaders from around the world, teaching remotely or in person. Imagine students having mobility with their courses at any other similar university in any other city allowing them to learn in different environments and even allowing athletics to continue to be the home field of each university giving students the benefit of inclusion, identity and comradery.
Imagine this paradigm shift in the distribution of education being offered at a fraction of the current cost while continuing to provide our youth with the opportunity to spread their wings in a dynamic environment that they designed. Imagine that cost being so low that students could return to a time when it was possible to pay for your education without a student loan. Imagine the societal benefits of moving 56% of our youth onto a dedicated path of their choosing.
Now, imagine the impossibility of implementing such a plan because it destroys the entrenched bureaucracy we've had in place for hundreds of years, and the number of elitists that would need to be sacrificed in order to even begin. Such is the difficulty of real, paradigm-style change and the reason that we have what we have.
I don’t disagree with your high level premise, but I’d expect a much better researched, fortified position than this. For example, this comment: “ but I would say with high confidence that the fully loaded net present value of a traditional college degree for the median student that graduates is negative.” demands proof to be taken seriously. Without some depth this is pure speculation and not worth serious consideration
Another big piece is the demographic trends in the U.S. which is already having an impact on many in various areas of the country (Look at enrollment at Western Illinois University for example). I think some growing states will be ok (e.g., Florida, North Carolina), but it's going to be an issue overall.
I've been faculty at various places for over 15 years now (yikes!). The number of support staff and mid-level administrators running around is stunning. As for faculty and tenure, many universities simply do not replace tenured faculty lines anymore (or rarely do). They are replaced with term positions and or adjunct faculty from outside. The remaining full time faculty pick up the additional dissertations, service, and advising. It is not sustainable, and I counsel most of my doctoral students to seriously think about an alternative to higher education.
Higher level administrators just stay a few years then go somewhere else (typically upwards). Many hire their friends/colleagues, so you get these groups that band together to jump upwards together. Then they leave again. It's a never ending cycle at the top at most places.
Some will survive and be fine (e.g., Ivy leagues and top public universities). The others will also survive but the quality will just decline.
Interesting to consider what universities will do with their sunk costs-huge and inefficient campuses. Maybe completely turn into farm programs for pro sports?
“seven years of college down the drain.. might as well join the f@#&’% peace corp”..
Blueto (John Belushi in the movie Animal House)
The problem isn't mainly faculty, but the explosion of administrators. It is this class that drives the crazy policies in higher education and at the same time is the major force driving costs. From a modest minority of professional positions in the early 1990s, campus administrators are now the majority of non-wage campus employees, in some places approaching 2/3. Not surprisingly, in those same 30 years, costs and tuition have exploded. The rate of increase is larger than 2x average inflation. I believe it's been more like 3x or more.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/224333-visualizing-the-u-s-higher-education-bubble
https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2010/9/8/saupload_nominal_average_tuition_vs_median_income_1976_2008.png
The historical turning point came in the mid-1990s, when the Clinton administration made it a national policy to get everyone to graduate high school and into college, no matter how underprepared or underqualified. The proliferation of easy financing we're used to now didn't exist before the 1990s. The Bush administration continued this policy, and Obama expanded on it. Before, college populations were smaller and graduation rates higher. The burden of student debt was far lower. Many students graduated before the 1990s with no debt at all.
Behind this was a previous generation's fateful perception that, in the future, everyone was going to work in an office, and that industrial and other working-class jobs had to disappear. This was already conventional wisdom among educators in the 1980s, but hadn't yet crystalized as national policy. The 1990s/2000s proliferation of ways to take out debt -- as with easy mortgages -- greatly eased the way to this future. Deindustrialization and the complete abandonment of the "family living wage" (one wage-earner supporting a family) (under pressure from liberals and feminists) became official policy in all but name after 1992. The abandonment of the working class and the "war on normal people" of the "new" liberals of the 1990s and 2000s, along with their more recent manufactured moral panics about race and gender, are part of this story as well.
Doomberg, I too was an M&A specialist prior to entering academia. After 15 years…10 years with tenure…I just gave it all up for all the reasons you mentioned. As Charlie Munger says “show me the incentives and I’ll show you the outcomes”, higher ed is structure to maintain the status quo. After all, where else can one find lifetime employment? Japan? That’s quickly changing…but not in academia. Until faculty feel the heat of their expendability, and leaders restructure their institutions to deliver value for the learner, this longstanding business model is truly going to the tar pits.
Just a few random notes from somebody in academia.
States, especially in the South, have pulled back subsidies dramatically since the 2008-09 recession. It used to be that the tuition (in state colleges) would cover about 25-30% of the actual costs and the public the remaining 70-75%. Now, the ratio is exactly flipped (in my institution, from 28/72 to 72/28).
It should be clear that this alone raises out-of-pocket cost by 2-3x, yet the college doesn't get any higher revenue (hence the permenent crisis). This has largely stayed out of the public discussion, but it is an important driving factor behind student debt growth (along with easy credit).
Computing is eating the world, so any degree that leads to a computationally driven job is worth having (for now). The rest, less and less so. The missing letter in STEM is C for computing; if you are not doing computational biology/chemistry/physics/etc there is no job for you.
The idea that higher education will be replaced by some sort of modular skills-based training has been around for a while and it hasn't gone very far. In fact, with the rare exception of advanced graduate classes, everything we teach is already out there, for free, in terms of information. Yet, it appears that most students do need the social aspect of campus and the hand holding of faculty in order to succeed. This was painfully confirmed in the COVID-induced online classes; it is a struggle for many. Part of it is that they don't get to talk to and learn from peers. It takes a village.
Dropout rates do look bad, but they are highly uneven across institutions, largely because elite institutions get to pick their students. Lesser ones, less so. We get some really unprepared students who don't stand a chance; the problem starts a lot earlier. There is a strong incentive for the university to have a graduation rate as high as possible (a dropout pays no tuition), so a lot of effort goes into it.
Still, what is the ideal dropout rate -- zero? Industry uses academic results as a cheap, first-cut filter; a sign of some (hopefully non-trivial) accomplishment and maturity. If that disappears as a signal, would that be beneficial?
Tenure has been on the wane for decades and is not nearly what the public imagines it to be (neatly summarized by the cartoon). These days you can get terminated for any kind of off-hand comment that lands wrongly. Most faculty in the humanities and other less favored disciplines are paid *unenviable* salaries. Only elite private and flagship state universities compete for top researchers (because they bring prestige and big grants).
Demographics is what is going to shake up higher education, and we know for a fact that a receding tide is coming over the next decade. So, yes, quite a few colleges are doomed simply because there aren't gonna be enough students to go around. This applies to both state and private colleges that are below elite status.
A good recap of what has been obvious for many years, but like so many other things that are begging for change our solutions always nibble around the edges when the only real solution needs to include a paradigm shift in the product design.
Start by imagining the high school counseling office not simply offering a university solution (presented consistently to all 5 of my very individually unique children) but in fact outlining the actual cost/benefit analysis of any choice the student is considering, all the way down to the current 6-figure truck driving opportunities (I believe a one page analysis signed by the student, counselor and parent should be required before graduation). Imagine that 56% drop out rate trending towards zero as each student would in fact be outlining their own unique direction.
Now, imagine the current typical campus not flying one university flag but dozens, maybe even hundreds (maybe even a chicken flag!). Imagine that campus in the center of every major city. Imagine the classroom not with tenured professors that only want security but a classroom being led by the best and most competent leaders from around the world, teaching remotely or in person. Imagine students having mobility with their courses at any other similar university in any other city allowing them to learn in different environments and even allowing athletics to continue to be the home field of each university giving students the benefit of inclusion, identity and comradery.
Imagine this paradigm shift in the distribution of education being offered at a fraction of the current cost while continuing to provide our youth with the opportunity to spread their wings in a dynamic environment that they designed. Imagine that cost being so low that students could return to a time when it was possible to pay for your education without a student loan. Imagine the societal benefits of moving 56% of our youth onto a dedicated path of their choosing.
Now, imagine the impossibility of implementing such a plan because it destroys the entrenched bureaucracy we've had in place for hundreds of years, and the number of elitists that would need to be sacrificed in order to even begin. Such is the difficulty of real, paradigm-style change and the reason that we have what we have.
Think about the value of going to campus and paying $200,000 over four years and learning that men can get pregnant. Sounds bullish.
I don’t disagree with your high level premise, but I’d expect a much better researched, fortified position than this. For example, this comment: “ but I would say with high confidence that the fully loaded net present value of a traditional college degree for the median student that graduates is negative.” demands proof to be taken seriously. Without some depth this is pure speculation and not worth serious consideration
Another big piece is the demographic trends in the U.S. which is already having an impact on many in various areas of the country (Look at enrollment at Western Illinois University for example). I think some growing states will be ok (e.g., Florida, North Carolina), but it's going to be an issue overall.
I've been faculty at various places for over 15 years now (yikes!). The number of support staff and mid-level administrators running around is stunning. As for faculty and tenure, many universities simply do not replace tenured faculty lines anymore (or rarely do). They are replaced with term positions and or adjunct faculty from outside. The remaining full time faculty pick up the additional dissertations, service, and advising. It is not sustainable, and I counsel most of my doctoral students to seriously think about an alternative to higher education.
Higher level administrators just stay a few years then go somewhere else (typically upwards). Many hire their friends/colleagues, so you get these groups that band together to jump upwards together. Then they leave again. It's a never ending cycle at the top at most places.
Some will survive and be fine (e.g., Ivy leagues and top public universities). The others will also survive but the quality will just decline.
Interesting to consider what universities will do with their sunk costs-huge and inefficient campuses. Maybe completely turn into farm programs for pro sports?
Much Fuckery abounds: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/08/public-universities-debt/619546/
Came to same conclusion different math. How to short?